Benjamin Netanyahu has just declared victory in the 12-day Israel-Iran war. This is nonsense. Contrary to what Netanyahu asserted, Israel failed to achieve its two principal aims. Indeed, it made it less likely that it will ever achieve either of those goals. First, Israel — even with US help — did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, and, in fact, attacking Iran makes it more likely that Iran will get nuclear weapons, not less likely. Second, Israel failed to get regime change in Iran, and, if anything, the regime has greater control over the country today than it had on 12 June, the day before Israel’s bombing campaign started. On top of all this, Iranian missiles and drones inflicted significant punishment on Israel, which was running out of air defense missiles and clearly did not have the resolve needed to wage a war of attrition, which the Iranians did have. In my world, that’s called losing, not winning. |